The Consensus Watch Blog is my latest iteration in my blogging evolution. My goal in this forum is present to investors incidents where a positive or negative Consensus has emerged. My observations are not scientific. I just call them when I see them. According to Technorati nobody else appears to be doing this type of survey. I welcome comments from people who have spotted acts of Consensus.
CONSENSUS SENTIMENT: POSITIVE (Bear Market Indicator).Investors regained courage and returned to mutual funds in September as the industry booked $993.8-million in net sales for the month.
posted by AKR Capital Research Blog @ 9:12 AM
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CONSENSUS SENTIMENT: NEGATIVE (Bull Market Indicator)As I was thumbing through the financial pages at the start of the week, these type of headlines started jumping out:
posted by AKR Capital Research Blog @ 9:10 AM
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Since the August credit meltdown, the Consensus has remained decidedly negative. As the Consensus was proclaiming the sky was gently falling, the major indexes took 5 to 10 percent haircuts.
posted by AKR Capital Research Blog @ 11:05 AM
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CONSENSUS SENTIMENT: POSITIVE (Bear Market Indicator). In one of the most eagerly awaited economic non-events in the past 6 weeks, Benny and the Fed, surprises the Consensus and pushes the envelop by cutting interest rates 50bp and discount rate by an additional 50bp.
posted by AKR Capital Research Blog @ 7:49 PM
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CONSENSUS SENTIMENT: POSITIVE (Bear Market Indicator). Gentle Ben’s 50 basis-point carpet bomb last Tuesday triggered the second largest single-day investment into mutual funds.
posted by AKR Capital Research Blog @ 9:30 PM
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CONSENSUS SENTIMENT: NEGATIVE (Bull Market Indicator). A survey by the National Association of Business Economics showed economists believe recession is the biggest risk to the economy right now and that the Fed will cut rates by half a percentage point by March in the face of sluggish economic growth.
posted by AKR Capital Research Blog @ 8:39 AM
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CONSENSUS SENTIMENT: NEGATIVE (Bull Market Indicator).Consumer confidence tumbled to its lowest point in nearly 11/2 years as a deep housing slump and a credit crunch made people more worried about the country's economic health as well as their own.
posted by AKR Capital Research Blog @ 8:38 AM
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CONSENSUS SENTIMENT: POSITIVE (Bear Market Indicator).Wall Street investment strategists and money managers responding to a CNBC Trillion Dollar Snap Survey are generally bullish on the stock market for the month of September. After a turbulent July and August, 65% of those responding say we've "seen the bottom of the stock market correction."
posted by AKR Capital Research Blog @ 7:38 PM
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CONSENSUS SENTIMENT: POSITIVE (Bear Market Indicator).Institutional investors still expect stocks to rise by between 5 percent and 10 percent byyear-end even as fears of a recession grow more prominent, according to a Citigroup client survey.
posted by AKR Capital Research Blog @ 7:33 PM
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